Daily Fantasy: Strategies for building a winning GPP lineup
Building a lineup in daily fantasy football is something that seems so easy on paper, but it takes a good amount of thought and research, if you want to be successful week in and week out. A lot of people get so caught up in trying to make their lineups contrarian, that they sometimes forget the cardinal rule...Play good players! Putting in the time on your research will go a long way. Find out what players perform better at home vs on the road, who plays better against what kind of defense, and what games have high projected point totals.
One of the ways to maximize your team’s point total is to produce a team stack or a game stack within your lineup. For example, if you think the Chiefs have a favorable matchup, you are going to play Patrick Mahomes at QB, while pairing him with 1 or 2 other offensive weapons on the Chiefs. If you stack Mahomes with a WR and/or Travis Kelce, that is a great way to maximize the points being scored in the game. If Mahomes throws an 80-yard TD to Tyreek Hill, you are getting points from two guys on one play. That’s the beauty of a stack. There are a lot of ways to differentiate your lineups, so there is no harm in playing a relatively chalky team stack.
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A game stack takes a little bit more thought. If you think it’s going to be a shootout, you are going to want to stack the offensive weapons on one team and come back with the best offensive player from the other team. The biggest key is paying attention to what a team wants to do in their offensive game plan. If a team airs it out 50 times a game, then you want to stack the QB and his favorite WR targets. If they do their damage on the ground, use the RB1 in your lineup. Of you do this and the game turns out to be a shootout, it’s likely that your lineup will put up a lot of points.
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Here are some tips for building and correlating your lineups to maximize the potential points you can put up:
Look at the over/unders each week, as well as the projected team totals. You want to choose your stacks from one of the games with the highest projected point totals. Sounds simple, but this is something that so many people fail to do.
Stack your QB with his WR1. For some teams their TE can fit as a high end WR, such as the Chiefs, 49ers and Eagles.
After picking your QB and WR1 from one team, stack it with the WR1 or RB1 from the other team.
If you think a team is going to slow down the game, a good stack option would be to stack an RB1 with that team’s DEF. It is best to pick a home favorite in your DEF spot. You want a DEF that is going to pressure the QB, which will result in sacks and hopefully some turnovers.
Try to avoid using more than 3-4 guys from the same game. You don’t want to spread yourself too thin. Sure, it’s harder to find the 3 guys that will go off, but if they do, you’re setting yourself up for a big payday.
Use a WR in your flex spot. If you are trying to take down a GPP, you are going to need your guys to go off. While RB’s usually have a higher floor, WR’s provide a higher ceiling. You are not just aiming to cash, you’re trying to hit it big, so you need as much upside as possible. When selecting WR's, I try to look for guys that are targeted 10-12 times a game. When building a lineup that includes 4 WR's, you want them to be targeted 40-45 times total. When building a lineup with 3 RB's, shoot for 70 combined touches.
When selecting a TE, I have found that it’s best to pick TE from a home favorite. I've noticed over the last few years, that TE's typically have bigger games at home, for whatever reason.
Take advantage of the late swap option. I always play a guy in the late games in my Flex spot. By doing this, you can monitor your team and see what you need to cash. If you need points to cash, you will need to find a guy that is low owned to give you a chance. If you are already cashing and just need more points, you can play a safer option, even if he ends up being highly owned.
My last tip is a pretty general statement, but it’s something I live by. Come up with a narrative that you want to stick to when building your teams. For example, find high floor RB’s and then stack a QB with his big play WR. You are going to need your guys to go crazy to be successful in GPP’s, so figure out your narrative and try to maximize the potential of your team.
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Building a successful GPP lineup is not easy, but getting into your research and building your process can be a lot of fun. There is no right or wrong way to do it, but I use these strategies week in and week out while building my teams. You can’t expect to cash every week, but the goal is that when your lineup hits, it hits big. Don’t go in blind. Have a plan and stick to your strategy. As always, you can feel free to reach out to me on twitter at @jsulli2121 with any lineup building questions.