• jsulli21

Jason Sullivan's Week 11 Draft Kings Preview

In Daily Fantasy, the biggest debate you'll hear each week is playing the chalk vs fading the chalk. Week 10 proved to be a week where the latter prevailed. Dalvin Cook, Mike Davis, and Duke Johnson all under-delivered while being the massive chalk on the slate. In the cases of Cook and Johnson, it wasn’t for lack of opportunity. Cook touched the ball 34 times in his game, while only yielding a modest 15.2 Draft Kings points. Duke Johnson was on the field for most of the game, while only putting up 5.4 Draft Kings points. It was frustrating to see these chalky guys not produce, but this shows you exactly why you should fade someone who’s ownership creeps up to the 30% level.


We are now on to Week 11. In my early deep dives into this slate, I see a ton of value plays on the board, while there aren’t as many slam dunk plays among the higher priced guys. When building my lineups for the week, I will be focusing on creating low-owned value stacks. I have 3 or 4 stacks that I love and will be starting all of my lineups with this week. Without further ado, let’s dive into my picks for the week. As always, we focus on the Sunday Main Slate only.

Stack #1

MINN vs DAL: Implied game total of 48.5 points.


1. Kirk Cousins - $6200

-Cousins has 20 and 18 points in his last two games. Minnesota’s offense is starting to roll and I love the matchup against Dallas’ terrible pass defense.

2. Justin Jefferson - $6000

-Jefferson has been the most heavily targeted Vikings WR over the last 4 weeks, while piling up 29 targets. He has scored 24, 42, and 33 points in games this season. While he is a boom or bust play, if/when he’s targeted, he produces in a big way.

3. Amari Cooper - $5400

-Cooper saw 17 targets in the two games that Andy Dalton was the starting QB in Dallas. He could easily hit 3x for the week.


**This leaves you with $5400 per player to build the rest of your lineup.

Photo courtesy of sbnation.com

Stack #2

CIN @ WASH: Implied game total of 46.5 points.

  1. Joe Burrow - $5500

  2. Tee Higgins - $5900

  3. Tyler Boyd - $5600

  4. Terry McLaurin - $6900

**This leaves you with $5220 per player to build the rest of your lineup.

Photo courtesy of cincyjungle.com


Stack #3

PIT @ JAX: Implied team total of 28.25 points (Pittsburgh).

  1. Ben Roethlisberger - $6700

  2. Chase Claypool - $6100

  3. Eric Ebron - $4000

**This leaves you with $5533 per player to build the rest of your lineup.

Photo courtesy of complex.com


Favorite Plays

  1. Dalvin Cook - $9000 vs DAL

  2. Aaron Jones - $7200 @ IND

  3. Kalen Ballage - $5600 vs NYJ

  4. JD McKissic - $5200 vs CIN

  5. Calvin Ridley - $7000 @ NO (if healthy)

  6. Robby Anderson - $6000 vs DET

  7. Jerry Jeudy - $5300 vs MIA

  8. Brandin Cooks - $5200 vs NE

  9. TJ Hockenson - $4200 @ CAR

  10. Dallas Goedert - $3800 @ CLE

Photo courtesy of pff.com


Sleepers

  1. Salvon Ahmed - $4800 @ DEN

  2. Rex Burkhead - $4600 @ HOU

  3. Breshad Permian - $4300 @ LAC (if healthy)

  4. Austin Hooper - $3900 vs PHI

Photo courtesy of palmbeachpost.com


As you can see there is so much value on this slate. It’s hard to decide exactly where to go, but I love the possibilities that it opens up when creating your lineups. While there are many options, you will still need to hit on your stacks to do any real damage this week. When playing in large field GPP tournaments, you are going to want to target more boom or bust type of players. After all, we are not looking to min cash, we are trying to win the big bucks! Again, remember that low-owned, does not automatically equal value. Look for the opportunities/touches/targets that guys might get and try to find the players that others aren’t talking about. You only needs one or two sleepers in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field, so you don’t need to go crazy. Trust your process and improve on it each week. Let’s win some money this week! As always, feel free to reach out to me with lineup questions on Twitter @jsulli2121.


-Jason Sullivan

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