Jason Sullivan's Week 15 Draft Kings Preview
Week 14 was a good one for our stack plays. The Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams stack paid off yet again, with Rodgers putting up 30.9 points and Adams scoring 27.5 points, despite being relatively quiet in the 2nd half. Anytime the Packers are on the slate, I will be starting my lineups with that stack. Perhaps, even more impressive was our value stack from last week, led by Tua Tagovailoa. Tua put up 31.0 points, with a salary of just $5700. Mike Gesicki and Travis Kelce also paid off, with 23.5 and 30.6 points respectively. The value stack really opened some things in my lineups, and it paid off nicely. I also had a good amount of success building lineups from the RB position out last week. Rather than trying to get too cute with lower priced guys, I made it a priority to get Derrick Henry in as many lineups as possible and that paid off again, as he put up 215 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, which was good for 39.2 points.
We are now on to Week 15. The first thing I noticed when doing my research this week is that there are a lot of individual guys that I want to play, but I had a tougher time narrowing down which stacks I wanted to start my lineup with. My go-to play of Aaron Rodgers is not on the slate, so I will need to look elsewhere this week. I have been trying to stack any game that the Chiefs are involved in and I will continue to do so this week. I will dive further into it when I give my plays, but there’s a lot to like about this slate. As a reminder, we focus on the Sunday Main Slate only. Here are my picks for the week:
KC @ NO: Implied game total of 51.5 points.
1. Patrick Mahomes - $7900
- Mahomes is averaging 27.9 points per game. He is coming off two “down” weeks, but still scored 22 and 24 points in those games. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game, so I love playing Mahomes this week.
2. Travis Kelce - $8000
- Kelce leads the league with 1250 receiving yards. While the price tag is high for a TE, you need to look at Kelce as a high-end WR. Kelce could very easily be the Offensive Player of the Year, so I will be playing him every single week.
3. Alvin Kamara - $7400
- Kamara has scored 17.7 and 22.4 points in the last two weeks. He is starting to heat up again, as he was targeted 7 times last week. The Saints will likely be playing from behind, so I think Kamara will be heavily involved this week.
4. Jared Cook - $3400
- Cook has become one of Hill’s favorite targets, scoring 12.7 and 11.8 points in the last two weeks, with a TD in each game. I like him even more with Brees back in the lineup. KC is 28th against TE’s, so Cook is a cheap plug and play that could have a high upside this week.
**This leaves you with $4660 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of nytimes.com
NO vs KC: Implied game total of 51.5 points.
1. Drew Brees - $5900
- As you know, Brees is coming off a pretty major injury, but he will be back just in time for this great matchup. Brees is averaging 19.2 points per game this season, and I love him in a game where a lot of points will be scored.
2. Michael Thomas - $7200
- Thomas had been averaging 17.6 points per game with Hill under center, and I expect a bump now that Brees is back. With Brees under center, I expect Thomas to receive at least 10 targets in this game. My one disclaimer is that Thomas has missed the last two days of practice with an ankle issue. If he is unable to go, I will be inserting Kamara into this stack.
3. Travis Kelce - $8000
- Same reasons as listed in the first stack.
**This leaves you with $4817 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of chicagotribune.com
IND vs HOU: Implied team total of 29.25 points. (IND)
1. Phillip Rivers - $5900
- Rivers is what he is, but he hasn’t looked bad lately, scoring at least 17 points in his last 5 games. I like the value against a terrible HOU defense.
2. TY Hilton - $5500
- It seems like the Colts have finally decided to get Hilton involved in their offense. He has scored 25 and 28 points in his last two games, while being targeted 7 and 11 times respectively.
**This leaves you with $5514 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of fox59.com
1. Derrick Henry - $9500 vs DET
2. Dalvin Cook - $9000 vs CHI
3. Jonathan Taylor - $7200 vs HOU
4. David Montgomery - $7000 @ MINN
5. Kenyan Drake - $5500 vs PHI
6. Tyreek Hill - $8800 vs NO
7. Terry McLaurin - $6600 vs SEA
8. Brandon Aiyuk - $6300 @ DAL
9. Mark Andrews - $5500 vs JAX
10. TJ Hockenson - $5200 @ TEN
Photo courtesy of duluthnewstribune.com
1. Keelan Cole Sr. - $4000 @ BAL
2. Darnell Mooney - $3900 @ MINN
3. Michael Gallup - $3500 vs SF
4. Tre’Quan Smith - $3200 vs KC
5. Irv Smith Jr. - $3600 vs CHI
Photo courtesy of chicagobears.com
As you can see, I’m starting my lineups with some higher priced stacks. While there are some very good value stacks on the board, I’m more than comfortable paying up this week. How can you ever go wrong with playing Mahomes and his dynamic offensive weapons? As I say every single week, there is a ton of value on this slate. It’s just a matter of finding the right lineup combination. A valuable tip that was discussed by my buddy John Kocur (@PghJohn36) on the Fantasy Firebox show this week, is that when you are deciding whether to pay down at RB or WR, it often makes much more sense to choose to do so at the WR position. There is a better chance that a WR in the low $4k range or $3k range catches lightning in a bottle, than there is for a RB in that price range to do so. If the RB is priced in that range, it is unlikely that they will receive enough opportunities to make it worth your while. If they are a guy who does receive the opportunities, they more than likely have a very low ceiling. The guy that most fits this description would be Frank Gore. The touches are there, but his ceiling is roughly 15 points. We are looking for boom or bust guys when we go down into this range. This is an area where a GPP can be won, if you own a low-priced guy that happens to have a monster game. So again, when choosing between a low-priced WR or a low-priced RB, I would always lean to the WR’s. As always if you have any questions about your lineups, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121. Hope this article helps you build some quality lineups and good luck this week!