To say that I'm glad that Week 15 is behind us, may be the understatement of the year. It was one of those weeks in DFS where nothing seemed to make any sense. I was extremely disappointed with my Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Jared Cook stack. I thought they would light in up against the Chiefs sub-par defense, however that was not the case. Brees was looking to get the ball of very quickly and yet only targeted Kamara 6 times. Kamara was one of the highest owned players on the slate and checked in with a modest 18.4 points. Needless to say, that was not enough to get us over the hump. Our stacks were ok, but not exactly what we hoped for. I promise you that our plays will be better this week!
We are now on to Week 16. This is the championship week in most season long leagues and likely the last slate of the season with the full compliment of stars available. Week 17 is always a tough week, so live it up this week and enjoy playing the stars. There is a lot to like on this slate, and there are a few stacks that really stand out to me this week. Draft Kings has finally priced up Patrick Mahomes, as he checks in at $8500 this week. It’s becoming harder and harder to start your lineups with the Chiefs stack. This week, I will be starting my lineups with the RB plays I like and building my way out from there. I will be looking for value on the board at the other positions. I've had a lot of success building my lineups this way recently and I encourage you to try to out this strategy. We are ready to make this week count as the season is coming to a close. As a reminder, we focus on the Sunday Main Slate only. Here are my picks for the week:
Stack #1 PHI @ DAL: Implied game total of 49.5 points. 1. Jalen Hurts - $7000
- Hurts received a well-deserved price bump this week after putting up 23.3 and 40.8 points in his first two starts. What was most impressive was his 338 passing yards and 3 TD performance last week. Hurts is a boom or bust play, but I like the boom side against a terrible DAL defense.
2. Zach Ertz - $3100
- This pick may surprise some people, but Ertz was targeted 7 times last week. Hurts spreads the ball around to a lot of different players, but clearly likes to target the TE position. At just $3100, Ertz could provide a lot of value this week, at a very low price.
3. Amari Cooper - $5700
- Cooper is coming off a down week, but he has been very solid this year, even with Andy Dalton as his starting QB. Cooper has averaged 8.2 targets a game, and I expect him to bounce back against an average PHI secondary.
**This leaves you with $5700 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of nj.com
Stack #2 CHI @ JAX and PHI @ DAL 1. David Montgomery/Darnell Mooney - $7700/$4000
2. Miles Sanders/Dallas Goedert - $7000/$3600
**This leaves you with $5540 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of wgntv.com
Value Stack CAR @ WASH: Implied game total of 42.5 points. 1. Teddy Bridgewater - $5300
2. DJ Moore - $5800
**This leaves you with $5557 to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of the riotreport.com
Favorite Plays 1. Deshaun Watson - $7600 vs CIN
2. Nick Chubb - $7800 @ NYJ
3. Austin Ekeler - $7600 vs DEN
4. Tony Pollard - $6500 vs PHI (Only if Zeke is out)
5. Tyreek Hill - $9000 vs ATL
6. Calvin Ridley - $8500 @ KC
7. Allen Robinson II - $7700 @ JAX
8. Dionte Johnson - $6300 vs IND
9. CeeDee Lamb - $5300 vs PHI
10 Rashard Higgins - $4800 @ NYJ
Photo courtesy of profootballnetwork.com
Sleepers 1. Benny Snell Jr. - $5300 vs IND
2. Jamison Crowder - $4500 vs CLE
3. Tyron Johnson - $4000 vs DEN
4. Darius Slayton - $3800 vs NYG
5. Mecole Hardman - $3100 vs ATL
Photo courtesy of aseaofblue.com
Each of the last two weeks, the winner of the $1 Million prize on Draft Kings has come from a similar build as my second stack. These lineups were built using a WR/RB stack from two different teams, without including that team’s QB. This is a very unique strategy, but I think there is something to it and I will be using it in most of my lineups this week. This strategy is of course very price sensitive, so you need to find value at a few positions. Last week’s winning lineup used a stack of Montgomery/Mooney paired with Mavin Jones and D’Andre Swift. I love this strategy, because it is really thinking outside of the box. You will need to pair your stack with a solid QB, but this is a very good and unique way to start your lineups. Once again, there's a ton of value at the WR position on this slate. There are a few guys in the low $4k’s and $3k’s that I absolutely love. We are going to be rolling this dice a bit this week, but I’m very confident in my early lineup builds. As always, if you have any lineup questions, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121. Good luck this week! Let’s win some money!
-Jason Sullivan