Jason Sullivan's Week 9 Draft Kings Preview
The Week 8 Main Slate proved again that contests are won by having great QB play and a monster game from a low-owned RB. Patrick Mahomes had a huge game, which included 416 passing yards and 5 TD’s on his way to nearly 40 points on Draft Kings. For an added bonus, Mahomes was owned in only 10% of lineups in most contests. While what the Chiefs did was impressive, the slate was truly broken by Dalvin Cook. Cook had a massive game, piling up 226 all-purpose yards and finding the end zone 4 times. Cook was again (for some reason), the lowest owned of the elite RB’s on the slate. I have been entering each week by starting my lineup with an elite QB and an elite RB with the lowest projected ownership. There is very little difference between Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook on a weekly basis, so I look at the matchups/game script and then the ownership when deciding on who to play. Each of them can put up 30-40 points just about any time they step on the field, so that’s a great way to start your lineup.
Now we are on to Week 9. It’s hard to believe that we are entering the second half of the Regular Season already, but we are ready for another exciting week. The first question of the week is, do you continue to play Dalvin Cook when his ownership with most likely approach 30% for the week, or do you start your lineup with one of the other stud RB’s? For me, Cook is a must-own in Cash games. His ownership will probably be at least 60% in Cash, but if you don’t own him, you will probably be in trouble. I think I might go a different direction in GPP’s though. If Cook comes out and has one of his normal games of 20-25 points, you won’t be in that much trouble. However, if in the small chance, he under performs for the week, you will already give yourself an advantage over roughly 1/3 of the field. Obviously, this is more of a game theory move meant for the times when you are playing in larger field events. Everyone has their different processes, and I encourage you to stick with what works best for you. I try to give you my plays each week, but it is up to you on what narrative you take when building the rest of your lineup. Having said that, here are my picks for the Week 9 Main Slate on Draft Kings.
SEA @ BUF: Implied game total of 51.5 points.
1. Russell Wilson - $7600
-Wilson has scored at least 24.9 DK points in every game this season. I love him in a matchup against a suddenly very soft Bills defense. I think SEA will put up a lot of points this week, so I’m rolling with the first half MVP.
2. Tyler Lockett - $6800
-How do you pick between Lockett and Metcalf on a weekly basis? I have yet to fully figure that out, so I normally play the lower-owned of the two. Lockett is averaging 9 targets a week and is the deep threat in this high-powered offense, so sign me up.
3. Stefon Diggs - $7400
- Diggs received a well-deserved price bump this week, but it won’t keep me off of him. He is averaging 9.9 targets a game and has established himself as a high-floor, high-ceiling performer in daily fantasy.
-This leaves you with $4700 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of seattletimes.com
LAC vs LV: Implied game total of 52.5 points.
1. Justin Herbert - $6800
2. Keenan Allen - $7000
3. Josh Jacobs - $6300 (More than likely I’m going to play a skinny stack in this game, meaning just the Chargers players. However, if I do run it back with on the Raiders side, it will be Jacobs that I play)
- This leaves you with $5171/$4983 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of athlonsports.com
ATL vs DEN: Implied game total of 48 points.
1. Matt Ryan - $6400
2. Julio Jones - $7200
-This leaves you with $7200 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of atlantafalcons.com
1. Kyler Murray - $7800 vs MIA
2. Ryan Tannehill - $6300 vs CHI
3. Derrick Henry - $7800 vs CHI
4. James Conner - $6900 @ DAL
5. Justin Jefferson - $6100 vs DET
6. Brandin Cooks - $5500 @ JAX
7. Hayden Hurst - $4100 vs DEN
8. Trey Burton - $3500 vs BAL
9. Chargers DEF - $3000 vs LV
10. Cardinals DEF - $2900 vs MIA
Photo courtesy of nflmocks.com
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - $6100 vs CAR
2. DJ Chark - $5200 vs HOU
3. Sterling Shepard - $4800 @ WASH
4. Jerry Jeudy - $4700 @ ATL
5. Giants DEF - $2700 @ WASH
Photo courtesy of arrowheadpride.com
I feel like I say this every week, but there is a lot to like about this slate. I have a ton of WR plays that I love this week, and it’s going to be hard to narrow that list down. I try to limit my core each week, so on the weeks that I win, I win big. There is no point in playing too many guys, because you will be spread too thin and there will be no correlation among your lineups. However, a lot depends on the slate. Don’t be afraid to grow and improve your process each week. Look back at how your teams did the previous week and compare them to the teams that finished at the top of the leaderboard. See how those lineups were built and see if you need to make any changes to the way you are constructing your lineups. It is a never-ending process to improve your game play, especially if you want to win some serious cash. As always, if you want to discuss your lineups, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121. Good luck this week!