The Backdoor Cover - Week 6 NFL Picks
Updated: Oct 18
By: Josh Gamble
We had another tough week, but as long as we are managing our bankrolls correctly, this a marathon and not a sprint. On the season, we are still above 50% and one good week will bring us back over the magic 60% mark. Bringing this to you guys a bit late this week as I did not want to post any picks until we had a somewhat better idea how the games would be affected by the new positive tests.
*Lines are accurate as of Saturday afternoon*
Broncos @ Patriots (-8.5) – Over/Under 45
There is a chance that both teams could have their starting quarterbacks back this week. That is definitely something to keep an eye on. Outside of that, I do not see much intrigue with this game. The betting on this game has been pretty even with a 60% split between the teams on cash and tickets. There is a ton of cash on the under in this game. If you are looking for a bet in this game, that would likely be the one, especially if one or both of the starting quarterbacks do not play.
Bengals @ Colts (-7.5) – Over/Under 46
Nobody loves Joe Burrow more than I do; however, last week was a massive disappointment. It was bound to happen with rookie quarterback. The real question now is how does he bounce back this week after a disappointing performance last week? The line sits at the magic number of 7.5 currently; however, there are too many questions for me to take that number. If there is any value in this game, it lies in the total. It is one of the lowest this week making the over very intriguing.
Lions (-3) @ Jaguars – Over/Under 54.5
This is a game that you will need to wait to bet it once you know it is actually going to be played. The Jaguars had a positive test on Saturday and closed their facilities. Keep a close eye on the situation. If they play this game, the sharp money is all over the Lions to cover the spread. The total is the most intriguing to me. Both of these defenses are terrible and the offenses have played relatively well this season. I just do not see either team stopping the other a whole lot. I am taking the over.
Falcons @ Vikings (-4) – Over/Under 54
I told myself that I would stay as far away from the Falcons as I could for the rest of this year. I lied to myself. I just cannot resist this matchup. I do not see a ton of value in the line with the way that the Falcons have been playing. Both of these offenses are good and both of these defenses are bad. I do not even care if Julio plays or not. Give me the over.
Football Team @ Giants (-3) – Over/Under 43
Both of these teams are terrible and there is not a ton of value in taking either of them. Even the total, sitting at 43, would normally be something I would automatically take the over. I just cannot do it. Stay away from this game.
Photo courtesy of theguardian.com
Ravens (-9.5) @ Eagles – Over/Under 46.5
The Eagles will now face a team for the second straight week that is going to bring tons of pressure on Wentz all game long. The Eagles offensive line actually did a better job last week against the Steelers than I thought they would. Whether or not they can do it again may be a different story. The more concerning aspect of last week’s game was how easily the Steelers were able to move the football and put points on the board. The Eagles are likely going to have a tough time against a Ravens offense that is tenfold better than the Steelers. The real question is how will the Eagles offense fair against another team that is going to blitz Wentz on the majority of his drop backs? I just do not see how this game will be anything other than a blowout. I am taking the Ravens and laying the points.
Browns @ Steelers (-3.5) – Over/Under 51
This is a game between two of the more surprising teams in the NFL with the Browns likely being the most surprising. Not surprisingly, the betting world is split completely down the middle with these two teams. That being said, there is value to me when you have a team as hot as the Browns getting 3.5 points. I would take that action before the line moves down to three or lower.
Texans @ Titans (-3.5) – Over/Under 53.5
This is probably the most interesting game to watch this week. The Titans came out of last week with an impressive victory against the Bills. The Texans, sans Bill O’Brien, looked like a completely different team than they have all season. Before we get too excited about that, let’s remember that they played against a terrible Jaguars defense. I do not think that either team is as good as they played last week. Both cash and tickets have a slight edge to the Texans, but I am going to stay away from this game.
Bears @ Panthers (-1) – Over/Under 44.5
Which Nick Foles will we get this week? The Panthers are certainly the trendiest pick as they have covered the last three weeks as an underdog. I still do not trust them at this point in the season. In fact, I do not trust either of these teams and I will be staying away from it.
Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5) – Over/Under 47
At this point, anyone who puts their money anywhere near the Jets should just donate it to charity. The Dolphins looked impressive last week against a bad team. I expect them to look impressive again this week against another bad team. I will be betting against the Jets until they can show that I should not. Take the Dolphins.
Packers (-1) @ Buccaneers – Over/Under 55
Both of these offenses have been outstanding and the money has shown that. The total in this game has been pushed up a few points up to 55. That is beginning to push it into a territory that I do not want to enter, especially considering the Buccaneers have one of the best defenses this season. This is a game that I would personally sit back, watch, and enjoy.
Photo courtesy of upi.com
Rams (-3) @ 49ers – Over/Under 51.5
The 49ers have been bad this season. They just got lit up by Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. Even with the 49ers being the home team, 3 points seems like a trap to take the Rams. Even if it that is the case, I cannot resist. If Fitzpatrick can do what he did to this secondary, then I would expect that Goff could do even more. I am taking the Rams to cover.
Chiefs (-4.5) @ Bills – Over/Under 57.5
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses, albeit the Chiefs loss a bit more so. The line has pushed up a point since its opening, which opens up some value to me. This is going to be the ultimate test to see if the Bills are a legitimate contender in the AFC. If you are looking to bet this game, it is hard to pass up the Bills getting 4.5 points.
Cardinals @ Cowboys (-1) – Over/Under 55
Obviously, the big question is what the Cowboys will look like without Dak Prescott. Andy Dalton is a longtime professional with a week of practice and has tons of weapons at his disposal. The Cardinals have beaten 3 bad teams this season and have looked incredibly inconsistent. There are too many questions in this game for me to bet, but I do have a slight lean on the Cowboys to cover.
Lions/Jaguars over 54.5
Falcons/Vikings over 54