The Backdoor Cover - Week 7 NFL Picks
Updated: Oct 25
By: Josh Gamble
*All lines are accurate as of Friday morning*
Early on, we were looking like it was going to be a big week. A couple missed field goals and goal line stops later and we ended the week at 2-3. Not what we want but starting to trend back in the right direction. Let's take a look at the action this week.
Browns (-3) @ Bengals – Over/Under 50
The Browns are going to Browns and Baker is going to Baker. Baker Mayfield looked more like the quarterback we expected this season last week. The line in this game has been teetering between 3 and 4 all week. The public and the sharps are both on the Browns this week. Maybe they think that Baker is more like the quarterback we saw the first few weeks. I just cannot trust him or the Browns to make any kind of play here. In addition, I have an unfounded bias towards the Bengals for reasons I cannot explain. I will be staying away from this game.
Cowboys (pk) @ Football Team – Over/Under 46
The consensus of the football world is that the Cowboys would be just fine with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Last week’s performance did absolutely nothing to prove that point. If anything, it was a notch in the other column. Andy Dalton has had talent his entire career and did very little with it. Combine that with the fact that the Cowboys defense is absolutely atrocious. This line opened at a field goal in favor of America’s team and has dropped significantly down to a pick em. The puzzling part of the drop is that the cash and tickets have leaned towards the Cowboy all week long. Appears to be the odds makers are concerned more about the ability of Dalton as opposed to where the money is at. With so many questions surrounding the Cowboys and the Football Team just not being very good, I do not see a ton of value in this game at all.
Lions @ Falcons (-1) – Over/Under 55
The Falcons have not been good at winning football games, but they have been an over machine this year. Combine that with a Lions offense that looks a lot better with Golladay back in the fold and this game screams over to me. Both are of these defenses are really bad and I would expect this to be a shootout. Everyone is all over the Lions in this game, both taking the points and as the moneyline favorites. I cannot trust the Lions ability to win, or not throw away, football games so I am staying away from the spread in this game. Give me the over 55.
Photo courtesy of cbssports.com
Panthers @ Saints (-9) – Over/Under 51.5
Oh, how quickly a darling falls out of good graces with bettors. The Panthers were a cover machine until last week when they did not play well. This line opened at 6.5 and heavy backing of the Saints has pushed this line out to 9. This opens up some value in my eyes. I do not think the Saints are as good as the history suggests they should be. I think the Panthers are a good enough team to keep this game close. Take the Panthers and the points before we see any type of correction the other direction.
Bills (-13) @ Jets – Over/Under 45
The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL. The Bills have not looked as good as they did to start the season; however, I believe the early season is more indicative of the type of team that they are. So far, both cash and tickets are heavily on the Bills to cover and has pushed the line from 10 out to 13 and I would expect that number to make it to at least 14. Kudos to you if you got the Bills in early betting at the 10 mark. Even with the line movement, I am betting against the Jets every week until they give me a reason not to. I am takin the Bills and laying the points.
Packers (-3.5) @ Texans – Over/Under 57
You have to think that Rodgers is going to be mad after what happened last week. I would fully expect him to come out guns blazing. The Texans are the harder team to figure out here. Their offense played well last week against the Titans but they have not been good all year. Is last week what we should come to expect now? That I am not sure of. On top of that, the 3.5-point home underdog seems like a bookie trap line to take the Packers. Cash and tickets is overwhelmingly with the Packers, which tells me that people are taking the bait. I am going to choose to stay away from this game. The over 57 is just too large of a number for me to find any value.
Steelers @ Titans (-1) – Over/Under 50.5
This may be best the most intriguing game to watch this week from a pure entertainment standpoint. Both teams have played much better than anyone expected them to and as we progress in the season it becomes more and more likely that these teams are legit. From a betting standpoint, I am just not seeing a ton of value in either the spread or the total. Even though Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the league, I would have a slight lean on the total since it has dropped a couple of points since it opened.
49ers @ Patriots (-2) – Over/Under 43.5
A week ago, I would have told you that the 49ers were one of the bottom teams in the NFC. Then they came out and looked impressive against the Rams. They looked more like the team that we expected them to be. They have gotten healthier on the offensive side of the ball which helps. You can say the converse about the Patriots, who looked pretty bad last week against the Broncos. The bottom line with the Pats is that Cam Newton has to play like the superhero he thinks he is in order for this team to compete against anyone. The public is siding with the 49ers in this game and has pushed the smart money over to the Patriots. I just do not see enough value in the current line to take either team. This is the lowest total this week and that does offer a little bit of value. Just not enough value and too many questions for me to make a play.
Chiefs (-10) @ Broncos – Over/Under 45.5
The Chiefs have been a hard team to figure out this year. One week they are losing to the Raiders or struggling against the Chargers. Other weeks, they are dismantling a team like the Bills who are supposed to be contenders. It almost seems like the Chiefs are playing to the level of their competition. As bad as I want to, I just cannot lay the 10 points in this game. The total opened this week as a playable number, but that is changing by the day as there have been heavy amounts of cash on the under. I still have a slight lean on the under this game but will not be one of my plays.
Jaguars @ Chargers (-9) – Over/Under 49
After looking okay early in the season, the Jaguars have fallen back down to the team that we thought they would be to start the season. They are a bad football team. The Chargers have been better than anyone expected, mostly due to the quarterback play from Justin Herbert. This cash on the Chargers have pushed this line out to 9 points which is too rich for my blood. The Chargers are better than expected, but I do not think they are a top team in the AFC as this line suggests. I will be staying away from this game.
Photo courtesy of theringer.com
Seahawks (-3) @ Cardinals – Over/Under 56
This is the game in which we will find out what the Cardinals are all about. They have shown flashes of being a good team and then come to disappoint the following week. Personally, I am not sold on the Cardinals being a legit contender in the NFC. On the other side, the Seahawks certainly have Super Bowl aspirations. I see good enough value in this line if it can stay at 3 points or less. If it bumps to 3.5 then I will start to lose a little confidence. I will be taking the Seahawks and laying the points.
Bears @ Rams (-6) – Over/Under 45
These are two of the most frustrating teams from a betting standpoint this season. One week, Nick Foles is good and the next he is not. One week, Jared Goff looks awesome and the next he does not. The spread does not look playable in its current state. Both the tickets and the cash are calling for the under in this game and I generally agree. I just cannot bring myself to touch either of these teams at the moment.
As always, you can follow me on twitter @Jtothe_ROC. Happy to answer and questions people may have. Happy betting!
Panthers +9 and over 50.5
Lions/Falcons over 55