It’s hard to believe, but the NFL Regular Season has come to a close. It was a season like no other that we have seen, between the lack of off-season training, injuries and of course, COVID. Having said that, the season was a much-needed break from everything else that is going on in the world. Week 17 proved to be my second-best week of the season in NFL DFS. The stack of Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee and AJ Brown hit big, which was great to see. More importantly, two of my sleeper picks, Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy also blew up, which helped to create my best lineup of the week. The only thing that disappointed was my Aaron Rodgers/Devante Adams stacks, which weren’t great for the first time in a long time. It was exciting to see some of my plays hit big, and I hope they were in your lineups as well.
We are now on to Wildcard Weekend, which is one of the best weekends of the year, from both a DFS perspective and just purely a quality football standpoint. There are a few plays and stacks that really jump out to me on these slates, but most will be very chalky. The key to your success will be finding ways to make your lineup unique. One easy way to make it unique is to leave some money on the table. Just about everyone that plays DFS feels like they need to use the entire salary cap. 90% of players leave $200 or less on the table when they build a lineup. I’m not saying that you should go crazy but leaving $400-$500 on the table is more than enough to differentiate your lineup. I often use this strategy in other DFS sports, and it’s a great way to prevent your lineup from being duplicated. You don’t want to win a contest and have to split it with anyone else! Having said that, we are now ready for some playoff football. Here are my picks for this weekend’s game:
Stack #1
BUF vs IND: Projected team total of 27.75 points. (BUF)
1. Josh Allen - $7500
- Allen has averaged 27.3 points per game this season and an astonishing 32.1 over his last three, despite not playing the entire game last week. He’s the best QB on either slate and will be in almost all my lineups.
2. Stefon Diggs - $7700
- Diggs is averaging 21.9 points per game and 27.8 points per game over his last 5. He’s as consistent as they come and is always a threat to hit a big play.
3. John Brown - $4700
- Brown is averaging 10.8 points per game this season and scored 17.2 last week in his first game back from injury/COVID.
**This leaves you with $5017 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of buffalowdown.com
Stack #2
TEN vs BAL: Projected game total of 54.5 points.
1. Ryan Tannehill - $6600
- Tannehill has averaged 26.4 points per game over his last five and scored 23 points in when TEN traveled to BAL earlier in the season.
2. AJ Brown - $7100
- BAL is going to do everything they can to stop Derrick Henry, which should open things up for Brown and Corey Davis. Brown has averaged 20.4 points per game over his last six and scored 16.2 points in the first matchup at BAL.
3. Marquise Brown - $5400
- Brown has averaged 16 points per game over his last six and has been targeted much more often after complaining about needing to get more involved.
**This leaves you with $5150 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of titansized.com
Favorite Plays
1. Lamar Jackson - $7800 @ TEN
2. Derrick Henry - $9200 vs BAL
3. Alvin Kamara - $8500 vs CHI
4. Nick Chubb - $6700 @ PIT
5. Cam Akers - $5100 @ SEA
6. Michael Thomas - $6400 vs CHI
7. Antonio Brown - $6100 @ WASH
8. Cooper Kupp - $6000 @ SEA
9. Logan Thomas - $4900 vs TB
Photo courtesy of profootballnetwork.com
Sleepers
1. Ronald Jones - $5500 @ WASH
2. Corey Davis - $4800 vs BAL
3. Darnell Mooney - $3900 @ NO
4. Cole Kmet - $3000 @ NO
Photo courtesy of bucsnation.com
I’m still in the early stages of building my lineups, but it is clear to me that this is a week to pay up at RB. You need to make sure that you lock down at least one of the higher priced guys to build your lineup around. When it comes to the WR position, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the higher priced guys, so I will be looking for more value plays at that position. As I mentioned earlier the slam dunk QB plays and stacks will be very chalky this week, since there are only three games on each slate. You will need to hit on at least one or two lower-owned value plays, if you want to make any noise in your contests. As always, I’m here if you need me. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121 with any lineup questions. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games!
-Jason Sullivan